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FIAP > Boletín – Otras Publicaciones > “Pension reform and its effects on the Chilean labor market” – CLAPES UC – August 2024
23 August, 2024

“Pension reform and its effects on the Chilean labor market” – CLAPES UC – August 2024

The report analyses the long-term impact of the possible 6% increase in the contribution rate on employment, wages, GDP, consumption and savings. According to the study, the higher contribution rate will substantially improve pensions in the long term, although its distribution between Social Security (SS) and the Individually Funded System (IFS) does matter: if it goes to the IFS, the improvement in pensions will double that obtained if it goes to the SS. I.e., increasing contribution rates will enable a significant increase in pensions, ranging from 20% if the 6% is allocated to the SS, to 50% if it goes to the Individually Funded System (IFS). This is not without costs, because this essentially translates into lower wages: -5.5% if everything goes to SS, compared to -4.5% if everything goes to the IFS, and formal employment drops by -3.4% with everything to SS, and by -0.3% with everything to the IFS. Formal employment suffers, and real wages are lower, which is accentuated when allocating a greater proportion of the additional contribution to social security. Furthermore, wages do not adjust rapidly in the short term, causing a greater-than-estimated increase in unemployment and informality. The study also includes a macroeconomic analysis, showing that GDP drops by 3.2% if the entire additional contribution goes to social security, and rises by 0.7% if everything goes to the IFS. On the other hand, consumption drops in all cases in which a part is allocated to SS, and only increases when allocated to the ISF. Thus, although contribution rates should increase the savings of families, the higher cost of labor reduces corporate savings, so the net effect is negative, except in cases where most of the contribution rate increase is destined to the individually funded system.

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