What are you searching?

FIAP > Boletín – Otras Publicaciones > Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 – The Lancet – March 2024
4 April, 2024

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 – The Lancet – March 2024

The demographic projection published in this scientific journal predicts an unprecedented global drop in the fertility rate, which will have unprecedented socioeconomic repercussions perhaps as early as 2030. The study estimates an unprecedented global decline in fertility since metrics have been made, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, where it will fall faster than in all United Nations countries. The work, carried out by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), estimates that in 2050 more than three quarters of the world’s countries (155 of 204) will not have fertility rates high enough to continue maintaining the size of their population. population. The percentage will rise to 97% in 2100.

The study predicts that the global fertility rate will fall below the replacement level (2.1 children per woman) around 2030, while the United Nations forecast is that this will occur around 2050. One of the most important points notable part of the study is the demographic contrast between the richest countries (with very low fertility) and the poorest countries (with still high fertility).

“Globally, fertility is declining below replacement level in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021,” the study authors note. Since 2000, trends show that only a small number of countries had a slight rebound in fertility after historic lows, with none able to reach replacement level. “In addition, the distribution of children born around the world is changing, concentrating in areas of the world with greater geopolitical instability,” they emphasize. “Future fertility rates will continue to decline around the world and will remain low even if birth support policies are incentivized,” they point out, so “these changes will have far-reaching economic and social consequences due to the aging of the population and the decline of the labor force in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing proportion of live births among the already poorest regions of the world.” The authors warn that in this scenario, national governments must now plan the response to the threats that these changes will pose to the economy, food security, health, the environment and geopolitical security.

Source: Expansión and The Lancet

Date: 03/21/2024

Suscribe to the Fiap International Newsletter Sign up here